Final Tony Predictions: Best Play Revival A Dolls House Gives Jessica Chastain Tw

March 2024 · 7 minute read

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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UPDATED: June 8, 2023

2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Revival of a Play

Weekly Commentary: The race for best play revival feels a little all over the map. Three main contenders are getting votes, and margins, particularly between the two most obviously in the lead, look slim.

“A Doll’s House” seems to be in the pole position, barely, with voters impressed by director Jamie Lloyd’s daringly minimalist take on the Henrik Ibsen classic. Anchored by star Jessica Chastain in a bold, vulnerable turn, the show also has the recency-bias advantage of being the leading contender that’s still running.

Cited almost as much as “Doll’s House” is “Topdog/Underdog,” the fall production that wowed critics with standout performances by Corey Hawkins and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II. There’s also a lot of love for playwright Suzan-Lori Parks, and many voters expressed admiration for director Kenny Leon’s production.

Voters also bring up the starry fall revival of “The Piano Lesson,” but less often than either “Doll’s House” or “Topdog.” Probably the safest bet for your Tony pool is “A Doll’s House,” but don’t count out “Topdog/Underdog.”

Gordon Cox’s Picks
Will win: “A Doll’s House”
Could win: “Suzan Lori-Parks’ Topdog/Underdog”
Should win: “Suzan Lori-Parks’ Topdog/Underdog”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Death of a Salesman”

Clayton Davis’ Picks
Will win: “A Doll’s House”
Could win: “Suzan Lori-Parks’ Topdog/Underdog”

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.

And the Nominees Are:

  • “A Doll’s House” (Hudson Theatre)
    Produced by Ambassador Theatre Group Productions, Gavin Kalin Productions, Wessex Grove, Julie Boardman, Kate Cannova, Bob Boyett, Hunter Arnold, Creative Partners Productions, Eilene Davidson Productions, GGRS, Kater Gordon, Louise L. Gund, Los Angeles Media Fund, Stephanie P. McClelland, Tilted, Jessica Chastain, Caitlin Clements/Francesca Moody Productions, Caiola Productions/Amanda Lee, Ted & Richard Liebowitz/Joeyen-Waldorf Squeri, Richard & Cecilia Attias/Thomas S. Barnes and OHenry Theatre Nerd Productions/Runyonland MMP; Presenting the production by The Jamie Lloyd Company
  • “Suzan Lori-Parks’ Topdog/Underdog” (Golden Theatre)
    Produced by David Stone, LaChanze, Rashad V. Chambers, Marc Platt, Debra Martin Chase and The Shubert Organization (Robert E. Wankel: Chairman and CEO; Elliot Greene: Chief Operating Officer; Charles Flateman: Executive Vice President)
  • “August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson” (Barrymore Theatre)
    Produced by Brian Anthony Moreland, Sonia Friedman, Tom Kirdahy and Kandi Burruss & Todd Tucker; Co-produced by Hunter Arnold, Playing Field, The Factor Gavin Partnership, FBK Productions/42nd.club, Jay Alix & Una Jackman, Creative Partners Productions, Harris Rubin Productions, Marguerite Steed Hoffman, Alia Jones-Harvey, Mark Gordon Pictures, Stephanie McClelland, Moore Delman, James L. Nederlander, Seriff Productions, The Shubert Organization (Robert E. Wankel: Chairman and CEO; Elliot Greene: Chief Operating Officer; Charles Flateman: Executive Vice President), Salman Al-Rashid/Jamie deRoy, Brad Blume/Cliff Hopkins, Jean Doumanian/Fakston Productions, Edgewood/DMQR Productions, Jay & Cindy Gutterman/Caiola Productions, Van Kaplan/Lu-Shawn Thompson, Erik A. King/FineWomen Productions, Marc David Levine/William Frisbie, Syrinda Paige/Kevin Ryan & Diane Scott Carter, Silva Theatrical Group/Tilted and Thomas Swayne/Cynthia J. Tong; Associate Producer: Costanza Romero-Wilson
  • “The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window” (James Earl Jones Theatre)
    Produced by Seaview, Sue Wagner, John Johnson, Phil Kenny, Audible, Sony Music Masterworks, Jillian Robbins, Jeremy O. Harris, Larry Hirschhorn and Ricardo Hornos, Shields Smedes Stern Ltd., Kevin Ryan, The Shubert Organization (Robert E. Wankel: Chairman and CEO; Elliot Greene: Chief Operating Officer; Charles Flateman: Executive Vice President), Willette and Manny Klausner, Marco Santarelli, Be Forward Productions, Concord Theatricals, Creative Partners Productions, Invisible Wall Productions, Salman and Moudhy Al-Rashid, TodayTix Group, Ido Gal, HarrisDonnelly, Sally Cade Holmes, Stella LaRue, LAMF Protozoa, Kati Meister and John Sorkin, Meredith Lynsey Schade, Catherine Schreiber, Dennis Trunfio, MCM Studios, 42nd.club, BAMM Productions, CarterMackTaylorWillman, HB2M Productions, HK-Undivided Productions, MAJIKK Theatricals, Tanker Kollev Productions, Douglas Denoff, OHenry Productions, Plate Spinner Productions, Runyonland Productions, Mad Gene Media, Scrap Paper Pictures, Joi Gresham and Brooklyn Academy of Music (Gina Duncan, President; David Binder, Artistic Director; Elizabeth Moreau, Producer); Presenting the production by BAM; Associate Producer: Zachary Baer

    • All Eligible Shows (Unranked)

    Tony Awards Predictions Categories

    BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY

    About the Tony Awards

    The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.

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